89th Academy Awards Predictions
Title says it all. I did this the last two years. Got a 20 out of 24 last time. Follow me, and maybe we can both be lucky and ace the Oscars this year.
The 89th Academy Awards will be on Feb. 26 on ABC at 8:30 p.m. EST.
Best Picture
Arrival—Shawn Levy, Dan Levine, Aaron Ryder and David Linde
Fences—Scott Rudin, Denzel Washington and Todd Black
Hacksaw Ridge—Bill Mechanic and David Permut
Hell or High Water—Carla Hacken and Julie Yorn
Hidden Figures—Donna Gigliotti, Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping, Pharrell Williams and Theodore Melfi
La La Land—Fred Berger, Jordan Horowitz and Marc Platt
Lion—Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Angie Fielder
Manchester by the Sea—Matt Damon, Kimberly Steward, Chris Moore, Lauren Beck and Kevin J. Walsh
Moonlight—Adele Romanski, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner
La La Land tied the record with Titanic and All About Eve with 14 Academy Award nominations. It’s hard to bet against it, but Moonlight has its eye on possibly pulling in two wins at the upcoming Screen Actors Guild ceremony which could help significantly.
Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Will Win: La La Land
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
In the end, the conventional five that were bubbling around for weeks made the cut. Damien Chazelle would become the youngest Best Director winner ever if he won, while Barry Jenkins would be the first African-American director in history. It’s certainly a tight race.
Should Win: Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea as Lee Chandler
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge as Desmond T. Doss
Ryan Gosling – La La Land as Sebastian
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic as Ben
Denzel Washington – Fences as Troy Maxson
The Screen Actors Guild chosen five prevailed, but this is still a race between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington.Yet, with La La Land’s historic showing, could Ryan Gosling make a play for it in the end? The Guild went for Denzel. Let’s see what happens.
Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Fences
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert – Elle as Michele Leblanc
Ruth Negga – Loving as Mildred
Natalie Portman – Jackie as Jackie Kennedy
Emma Stone – La La Land as Mia
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins as Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert manages her way into the lineup to keep the Golden Globe picks going. Predicting Ruth Negga was risky but it paid off. Still, I would have never thought it would have been at the cost of Amy Adams in Arrival. Emma Stone won at the Screen Actors Guild and looks to be on her way.
Should Win: La La Land
Will Win:La La Land
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight as Juan
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water as Marcus Hamilton
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea as Patrick
Dev Patel – Lion as Saroo Brierley
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals as Bobby Andes
Watch out for Michael Shannon. That’s all I’m saying.
Should Win: Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences as Rose Maxon
Naomie Harris – Moonlight as Paula
Nicole Kidman – Lion as Sue Brierley
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures as Dorothy Vaughan
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea as Randi Chandler
Same five many predicted…same number one. It’s all good from here.
Should Win: Viola Davis
Will Win: Viola Davis
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
20th Century Women – Mike Mills
La La Land will be the first musical to win this award since The Producers.
Should Win: La La Land
Will Win: La La Land
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival – Eric Heisserer
Fences – August Wilson
Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
Lion – Luke Davies
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney
No big surprises here, but if August Wilson manages a win he would be the first posthumous winner since the writer for Gone with the Wind. I think Lion has the goods to top Moonlight, but I’d also be looking at Hidden Figures to take this.
Should Win: Hidden Figures
Will Win: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings – Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner
Moana – John Musker, Ron Clements and Osnat Shurer
My Life as a Courgette – Claude Barras and Max Karli
The Red Turtle – Michaël Dudok de Wit and Toshio Suzuki
Zootopia – Byron Howard, Rich Moore, and Clark Spencer
With Kubo and the Two Strings snagging a Visual Effects nom, and Moana in Song, they could top Zootopia for the win. But the Producers Guild of America chose Zootopia (and so has everyone else).
Should Win:Kubo and the Two Strings
Will Win: Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark) in Danish – Martin Zandvliet
A Man Called Ove (Sweden) in Swedish – Hannes Holm
The Salesman (Iran) in Persian – Asghar Farhadi
Tanna (Australia) in Nauvhal – Martin Butler and Bentley Dean
Toni Erdmann (Germany) in German – Maren Ade
Should Win: The Salesman
Will Win: The Salesman
Best Documentary – Feature
Fire at Sea – Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo
I Am Not Your Negro – Raoul Peck, Rémi Grellety, and Hébert Peck
Life, Animated – Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman
O.J.: Made in America – Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow
13th – Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick and Howard Barish
Should Win:O.J.: Made in America
Will Win:13th
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Extremis – Dan Krauss
4.1 Miles – Daphne Matziaraki
Joe’s Violin – Kahane Cooperman and Raphaela Neihausen
Watani: My Homeland – Marcel Mettelsiefen and Stephen Ellis
The White Helmets – Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara
Should Win: The White Helmets
Will Win: The White Helmets
Best Live Action Short Film
Ennemis intérieurs – Sélim Azzazi
La Femme et le TGV – Timo von Gunten and Giacun Caduff
Silent Nights – Aske Bang and Kim Magnusson
Sing – Kristóf Deák and Anna Udvardy
Timecode – Juanjo Giménez
Should Win: Silent Nights
Will Win: Silent Nights
Best Animated Short Film
Blind Vaysha – Theodore Ushev
Borrowed Time – Andrew Coats and Lou Hamou-Lhadj
Pear Cider and Cigarettes – Robert Valley and Cara Speller
Pearl – Patrick Osborne
Piper – Alan Barillaro and Marc Sondheimer
Should Win:Piper
Will Win:Piper
Best Original Score
Jackie – Mica Levi
La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
Lion – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
Passengers – Thomas Newman
Should Win:La La Land
Will Win:La La Land
Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls – Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster (Shellback)
“City of Stars” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story – Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana – Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Should Win: “How Far I’ll Go”
Will Win: “City Of Stars”
Best Sound Editing
Arrival — Sylvain Bellemare
Deepwater Horizon – Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli
Hacksaw Ridge – Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright
La La Land – Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
Sully – Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival – Bernard GariépyStrobl and Claude La Haye
Hacksaw Ridge – Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie and Peter Grace
La La Land – Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee and Steve A. Morrow
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Mac Ruth
Should Win:Hacksaw Ridge
Will Win:La La Land
Best Production Design
Arrival—Patrice Vermette (Production Design); Paul Hotte (Set Decoration)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them—Stuart Craig (Production Design); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
Hail, Caesar!—Jess Gonchor (Production Design); Nancy Haigh (Set Decoration)
La La Land—David Wasco (Production Design); Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (Set Decoration)
Passengers—Guy Hendrix Dyas (Production Design); Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)
Should Win:Jackie
Will Win:La La Land
Best Cinematography
Arrival – Bradford Young
La La Land – Linus Sandgren
Lion – Greig Fraser
Moonlight – James Laxton
Silence – Rodrigo Prieto
Should Win:Arrival
Will Win:La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove – Eva von Bahr and Love Larson
Star Trek Beyond – Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo
Suicide Squad – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini and Christopher Nelson
Should Win:Star Trek Beyond
Will Win:Star Trek Beyond
Best Costume Design
Allied – Joanna Johnston
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle
Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
La La Land – Mary Zophres
Should Win: Jackie
Will Win:Jackie
Best Film Editing
Arrival – Joe Walker
Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts
La La Land – Tom Cross
Moonlight – Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon
Should Win:Hacksaw Ridge
Will Win: La La Land
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon – Craig Hammeck, Jason Snell, Jason Billington and Burt Dalton
Doctor Strange – Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli and Paul Corbould
The Jungle Book – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Dan Lemmon
Kubo and the Two Strings – Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean and Brad Schiff
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel and Neil Corbould
Should Win:The Jungle Book
Will Win:The Jungle Book
