88th Academy Awards Predictions

Last year I published my predictions on the Academy Awards. I did fairly well, only missing four out of 24. So if you are betting on who’s winning, I might be the best shot you have at acing that awards postcard. It is time to continue the tradition. I will go through each category, commenting on the major ones. My choices are split into two sections: One section, the should win, is who I feel deserves to get the award and the second section, the will win, is who the academy is most likely to choose.

The 88th Academy Awards will be on Feb. 28 on ABC at 8:30 p.m. EST.

Best Picture

The Big Short – Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, and Jeremy Kleiner
Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger
Brooklyn – Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey
Mad Max: Fury Road – Doug Mitchell and George Miller
The Martian – Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam
The Revenant – Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon
Room – Ed Guiney
Spotlight – Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust

For once, The Best Picture category is a wide-open race. Competing organizations in Hollywood are backing different films. The Big Short has the Producer’s Guild of America behind it, The Revenant and The Martian have their Golden Globe Awards. The Screen Actor’s Guild supports Spotlight and the Director’s Guild of America could go with George Miller for Mad Max.

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: Spotlight

Best Director

Adam McKay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

This looks to be a legitimate four horse race with only Lenny Abrahamson likely not spoiling. Inarritu won last year, though Miller’s respected, McKay’s film has gained steam, and McCarthy could come along if his film wins Best Picture.

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: The Revenant

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston – Trumbo as Dalton Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian as Mark Watney
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant as Hugh Glass
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs as Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl as Lili Elbe / Einar Wegener

Is there a conversation to be had for this category? It looks like Leonardo DiCaprio’s year but we can argue about who is No. 2.  I think it’s Cranston, maybe. Basically, If Leo can’t win this year, he is not winning, ever.

Should Win: The Revenant
Will Win: The Revenant

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Carol as Carol Aird
Brie Larson – Room as Joy “Ma” Newsome
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy as Joy Mangano
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years as Kate Mercer
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn as Eilis Lacey

This has moved very well for Brie Larson standing on stage but there is considerable support for both Saoirse Ronan and Charlotte Rampling that could bubble up before the ceremony.

Should Win: Room
Will Win: Room

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Big Short as Michael Burry
Tom Hardy – The Revenant as John Fitzgerald
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight as Michael Rezendes
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies as Rudolf Abel
Sylvester Stallone – Creed as Rocky Balboa

Sylvester Stallone has showed the strength of a winner but with no SAG or BAFTA nomination, it’ll be a long road from here to when final ballots are in and he isn’t anywhere giving a speech. Will it hurt him and help Mark Rylance or Mark Ruffalo? Perhaps even Christian Bale going for a second supporting statue? He would be the first two-time Oscar-winner for supporting actor since Christoph Waltz.

Should Win: Sylvester Stallone
Will Win: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight as Daisy Domergue
Rooney Mara – Carol as Therese Belivet
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight as Sacha Pfeiffer
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl as Gerda Wegener
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs as Joanna Hoffman

Kate Winslet has a Golden Globe while Alicia Vikander has the Critics Choice. Harvey is working his magic for Rooney Mara as well. Could be close but Vikander seems like the safe bet.

Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh
Will Win: Alicia Vikander

Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies – Matt Charman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen
Ex Machina – Alex Garland
Inside Out – Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie del Carmen
Spotlight – Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer
Straight Outta Compton – Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, and Alan Wenkus

This category is still Spotlight’s to lose but Inside Out or even Bridge of Spies could give it a run for the money. When it comes to Quentin Tarantino and his non-appearance, he’s never appeared in this category without his film making it in Best Picture. Sadly, the academy wasn’t all in on The Hateful Eight. It’s a shame he sat this one out.

Should Win: Inside Out
Will Win: Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short – Adam McKay and Charles Randolph from The Big Short by Michael Lewis
Brooklyn – Nick Hornby from Brooklyn by Colm Tóibín
Carol – Phyllis Nagy from The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith
The Martian – Drew Goddard from The Martian by Andy Weir
Room – Emma Donoghue from Room by Emma Donoghue

This race is wide open for a winner, and even five nominees. It’s top-heavy with contenders and only The Big Short  feels safe at the moment. Room could run away with the prize but Brooklyn looks like a prime candidate for this category. The Writer’s Guild of America went with Trumbo and a movie about old Hollywood should have hit the right chord with voters, which makes its snub so shocking. The Golden Globes rewarding Steve Jobs is also a shocker.

Should Win: The Martian
Will Win: The Big Short

Best Animated Feature

Anomalisa – Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson, and Rosa Tran
Boy & the World – Alê Abreu
Inside Out – Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera
Shaun the Sheep Movie – Mark Burton and Richard Starzak
When Marnie Was There – Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura

Should Win: Inside Out
Will Win: Inside Out

Best Foreign Language Film

Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia) in Spanish – Ciro Guerra
Mustang (France) in Turkish – Deniz Gamze Ergüven
Son of Saul (Hungary) in Hungarian – László Nemes
Theeb (Jordan) in Arabic – Naji Abu Nowar
A War (Denmark) in Danish – Tobias Lindholm

Should Win: Son of Saul
Will Win: Son of Saul

Best Feature Documentary

Amy – Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees
Cartel Land – Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin
The Look of Silence – Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
What Happened, Miss Simone? – Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby, and Justin Wilkes
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom – Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor

Should Win: Amy
Will Win: The Look of Silence

Best Short Documentary

Body Team 12 – David Darg and Bryn Mooser
Chau, Beyond the Lines – Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah – Adam Benzine
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness – Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
Last Day of Freedom – Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman

Should Win: Body Team 12
Will Win: Last Day of Freedom

Best Live-Action Short Film

Ave Maria – Eric Dupont and Basil Khalil
Day One – Henry Hughes
Everything Will Be Okay – Patrick Vollrath
Shok – Jamie Donoughue
Stutterer – Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage

Should Win: Day One
Will Win: Shok

Best Animated Short Film

Bear Story – Pato Escala Pierart and Gabriel Osorio Vargas
Prologue – Imogen Sutton and Richard Williams
Sanjay’s Super Team – Nicole Paradis Grindle and Sanjay Patel
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos – Konstantin Bronzit
World of Tomorrow – Don Hertzfeldt

Should Win: Sanjay’s Super Team
Will Win: Sanjay’s Super Team

Best Original Score

Bridge of Spies – Thomas Newman
Carol – Carter Burwell
The Hateful Eight – Ennio Morricone
Sicario – Jóhann Jóhannsson
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – John Williams

Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: The Hateful Eight

Best Original Song

Earned It from Fifty Shades of Grey – Music and Lyric by Ahamad Balshe (Belly), Stephan Moccio, Jason Daheala” Quenneville, Abel Tesfaye (The Weeknd)
Manta Ray from Racing Extinction – Music by J. Ralph, Lyric by Antony Hegarty
Simple Song #3 from Youth – Music and Lyric by David Lang
Til It Happens to You from The Hunting Ground – Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and Diane Warren
Writing’s on the Wall  from Spectre – Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith

Should Win: Writing’s on the Wall
Will Win: Simple Song #3

Best Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road – Mark A. Mangini and David White
The Martian – Oliver Tarney
The Revenant – Martin Hernández and Lon Bender
Sicario – Alan Robert Murray
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Matthew Wood and David Acord

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies – Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, and Drew Kunin
Mad Max: Fury Road – Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, and Ben Osmo
The Martian – Paul Massey, Mark Taylor, and Mac Ruth
The Revenant – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom, and Chris Duesterdiek
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Production Design

Bridge of Spies – Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich, and Adam Stockhausen
The Danish Girl – Michael Standish and Eve Stewart
Mad Max: Fury Road – Colin Gibson and Lisa Thompson
The Martian – Celia Bobak and Arthur Max
The Revenant – Jack Fisk and Hamish Purdy

Should Win: Mad Max
Will Win: The Danish Girl

Best Cinematography

Carol – Ed Lachman
The Hateful Eight – Robert Richardson
Mad Max: Fury Road – John Seale
The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki
Mad Max: Fury Road– Roger Deakins

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: The Revenant

Best Makeup

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared – Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
Mad Max: Fury Road – Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, and Damian Martin
The Revenant – Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman, and Robert Pandini

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Costume Design

Carol – Sandy Powell
Cinderella – Sandy Powell
The Danish Girl – Paco Delgado
Mad Max: Fury Road – Jenny Beavan
The Revenant – Jacqueline West

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: The Danish Girl

Best Editing

The Big Short – Hank Corwin
Mad Max: Fury Road – Margaret Sixel
The Revenant – Stephen Mirrione
Spotlight – Tom McArdle
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury road

Best Visual Effects

Ex Machina – Mark Williams Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris, and Andrew Whitehurst
Mad Max: Fury Road – Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams, and Tom Wood
The Martian – Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence, Richard Stammers, and Steven Warner
The Revenant – Richard McBride, Matt Shumway, Jason Smith, and Cameron Waldbauer
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, and Neal Scanlan

Should Win:Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens